Preseason Rankings
Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#194
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.0#235
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#222
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#185
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 4.6% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.8 14.6
.500 or above 41.6% 44.4% 17.9%
.500 or above in Conference 51.3% 53.3% 34.5%
Conference Champion 6.1% 6.5% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 8.4% 7.5% 16.2%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round4.2% 4.5% 1.4%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Away) - 89.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 33 - 54 - 10
Quad 47 - 311 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 347   @ South Carolina St. W 77-63 90%    
  Nov 30, 2020 146   Bowling Green L 74-75 49%    
  Dec 11, 2020 164   @ Charlotte L 64-69 34%    
  Dec 15, 2020 20   @ Tennessee L 58-77 5%    
  Dec 21, 2020 60   Auburn L 67-78 16%    
  Dec 22, 2020 60   @ Auburn L 65-79 11%    
  Jan 01, 2021 281   Troy W 76-68 75%    
  Jan 02, 2021 281   Troy W 76-68 74%    
  Jan 08, 2021 203   Georgia Southern W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 09, 2021 203   Georgia Southern W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 15, 2021 187   @ South Alabama L 67-70 38%    
  Jan 16, 2021 187   @ South Alabama L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 22, 2021 106   Georgia St. L 74-78 38%    
  Jan 23, 2021 106   Georgia St. L 74-78 38%    
  Jan 29, 2021 281   @ Troy W 73-71 55%    
  Jan 30, 2021 281   @ Troy W 73-71 55%    
  Feb 05, 2021 106   @ Georgia St. L 71-81 21%    
  Feb 06, 2021 106   @ Georgia St. L 71-81 21%    
  Feb 11, 2021 175   Coastal Carolina W 78-76 55%    
  Feb 13, 2021 175   @ Coastal Carolina L 75-79 35%    
  Feb 19, 2021 187   South Alabama W 70-67 58%    
  Feb 20, 2021 187   South Alabama W 70-67 58%    
  Feb 26, 2021 203   @ Georgia Southern L 72-75 42%    
  Feb 27, 2021 203   @ Georgia Southern L 72-75 42%    
Projected Record 11 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 6.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.4 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.4 2.1 0.7 0.0 8.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.6 2.1 0.5 0.1 9.2 4th
5th 0.5 2.6 4.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.2 2.6 0.3 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.1 2.8 0.5 0.0 9.4 8th
9th 0.3 1.7 3.8 2.8 0.5 0.0 9.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.4 2.5 0.6 0.0 8.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.6 1.6 0.4 0.0 7.0 11th
12th 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.1 12th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.4 5.4 7.2 8.7 9.9 10.8 10.5 10.1 8.6 7.6 5.9 4.3 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 97.8% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 89.6% 1.1    0.9 0.2
15-3 67.8% 1.7    1.0 0.6 0.1
14-4 39.2% 1.7    0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 14.8% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
12-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 3.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 93.3% 91.3% 2.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 23.1%
16-2 1.2% 78.0% 76.4% 1.6% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 6.6%
15-3 2.5% 52.2% 50.8% 1.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 2.8%
14-4 4.3% 22.5% 21.9% 0.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 3.3 0.8%
13-5 5.9% 7.5% 7.4% 0.1% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 5.4 0.1%
12-6 7.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 7.6
11-7 8.6% 8.6
10-8 10.1% 10.1
9-9 10.5% 10.5
8-10 10.8% 10.8
7-11 9.9% 9.9
6-12 8.7% 8.7
5-13 7.2% 7.2
4-14 5.4% 5.4
3-15 3.4% 3.4
2-16 2.1% 2.1
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 4.3% 4.2% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.3 95.7 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%